Investment Market Update Europe Q3 2012 Steady volume
26 October 2012
Commercial real estate investment activity in Europe reached EUR24.6bn in Q3 2012, a 3% decline from Q2 2012 as economic uncertainties prevail (Figure 1).
Contents
Investors continued to focus on safe haven markets of the UK, Germany and France representing 79% of volumes in Q3, up from 73% in Q2.
Economic context
2
European investment volume
3
Source of capital
5
Investors type
7
Property type
9
Yields trends
10
Outlook
12
Authors Magali Marton
Elsewhere, market activity was constrained with volumes in the Nordics falling by 39% to EUR2.4bn. Sales in Ireland, Italy and Spain declined by 22% in Q3 to a mere EUR400m, investment market update dtz. CEE recorded a 27% increase to a modest EUR400 million. Risk aversion is also reflected in the level of cross-border investment, which slowed from EUR11.6bn in Q2 to EUR9.7bn in Q3. Inter-regional investors were most active albeit at lower levels, but still remained the only net buyers in Q3. Private property vehicles continue to dominate the European investment activity remaining the largest net investor with net purchases of EUR 2.2bn in Q3. Institutions also remained active on the buy-side.
Head of CEMEA Research +33 (0)1 49 64 49 54 [email protected]
We expect investment volume for the whole year of 2012 to close at EUR100bn, around 10% lower than 2011 and on a par with activity in 2010.Looking ahead to 2013 we see volumes rising modestly to €110bn, close to their level in 2011.
Kasia Sielewicz Manager Investor Research +44 (0)203 296 2322 [email protected] Figure 1
Contacts
Investment volume in Europe, EUR bn 250
Nigel Almond Head of Strategy Research +44 (0)203 296 2328 [email protected]
200 150 100
50
Hans Vrensen
0
Global Head of Research Q1
+44 (0)203 296 2159 [email protected]
DTZ Research
Source: DTZ Research
Q2
Q3
Q4
Europe Q3 2012
Economic context
Figure 2
GDP forecast annual growth Economic forecast downgraded The economic backdrop in Europe remained weak in the third quarter of 2012 as uncertainties surrounding the sovereign debt crisis continued to weigh on Europe’s performance. Both domestic and external demand remains weak, whilst troubles in the banking sector filter through to local economies. As the US economy remains sluggish, and China’s growth is softening the short-term outlook has been downgraded. Growth expectations for 2012 are weaker in Germany, and the UK. Italy saw a significant downgrade to its growth forecast as austerity measures hit harder. Poland is expected to perform relatively well, on the other hand, although growth is forecast to be weaker than in 2011. Overall GDP for the Eurozone as a whole is forecast to drop 0.6% in 2012, investment market update dtz, and show virtually no growth in 2013 (Figure making money raising cattle. ECB announcement provides respite to bond markets During September the ECB announced an unlimited shortterm bond-buying scheme - outright monetary transition (OMT) - signalling its commitment to step in and rescue the Eurozone should the need arise. The announcement had positive effects on bond markets easing the yields for economies at the heart of the crisis. This should provide the much needed respite to those governments lowering their immediate borrowing costs. Still, bond yields remain high in an historic context in Europe’s peripheral markets. In contrast bond yields in core markets including France, Germany and the UK remain at record lows (Figure 3).
3%
2013
2012
2%
1% 0% -1% -2%
-3%
Forecast as of Q2 2012
Forecast as of Q3 2012
Source: Oxford Economics
Figure 3
Five year bond yields in selected European markets 20% 16% OMT
12%
8% 4% 0% Jan-11 Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
UK Spain
Jan-12 Apr-12
Jul-12
Germany Italy
Oct-12
France Ireland
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 4
Investor sentiment remains volatile Markets have also reacted positively to the ECB’s announcement. European real estate stocks rallied in line with the overall equity market. The rally somewhat stalled towards the end of September highlighting that markets remain highly volatile (Figure 4). Despite these commitments, investors remain wary of the scale of the problems in the Eurozone and that they remain unresolved.
FTSE Eurotop 300 Index and EPRA Index Index Jan 2011=100 Second 110
bailout in Greece
ECB €1trn LTRO
Spainish debt problem revealed
Investment market update dtz announced OMT
100 90 80 70 60
FTSE Eurotop 300 Index
EPRA Index
Source: Bloomberg
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Investment Market Update
2
Europe Q3 2012
European investment volume Steady activity in Q3 Despite the continued uncertainty investment market update dtz the Eurozone and the worsening economic situation, investment volumes across the region remained broadly stable. Commercial real estate investment across Europe totalled EUR24.6bn in Q3 2012, a 3% decrease on the EUR25.4bn recorded in Q2 (Figure 5), investment market update dtz. Market activity has kept its momentum, close to EUR25bn on average since the beginning of the year.
Figure 5
Investment volume in Europe, EUR bn 250
200 150 100
50
The continued uncertainty has notably accelerated the polarization of investors’ interest on a few core markets. The European figures however mask very diverse performances across European countries (Map 1).
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Source: DTZ Research
Greater focus on core markets with the UK ahead Activity in the UK increased by 6% to EUR11bn in Q3 boosting its share to 44% of European activity. Volumes rose in Germany to EUR5bn in Q3 from EUR4.2bn in Q2 whilst the French market recorded a 16% decline to EUR3.5bn in Q3 (Figure 6). Combined these three markets accounted for a record 79% of the capital invested in Europe, investment market update dtz. Benelux and CEE recorded a rebound in activity, +14% and +27% respectively but volumes remain at low levels. After strong activity in Q2, volumes in the Nordics declined 39% to EUR2bn, in line with their average level. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, investment market update dtz, volumes in the Nordics were 12% lower. Rush on mega deals boosted the average lot size During the third quarter we saw a sharp increase in the number of deals over EUR100m. This was mostly in the EUR100-EUR200m bracket, where the volume of activity grew 69% from EUR3.2bn in Q2 to EUR5.2bn in Q3. This reflected numerous deals in the three core markets (France, Germany and the UK) plus a handful of deals in the Czech Republic, Italy, Finland and Sweden. As a consequence, average lot size in Q3 increased to EUR28.1m up from EUR27.1m in Q2 (Figure 7). Joint ventures still remain very popular on the buy side and it is now clear that investors optimise and use the available liquidity to acquire larger lot sizes.
Figure 6
European investment volume, EUR bn 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 UK Germany France Benelux CEE Nordics Other Source: DTZ Research
Figure 7
Investment activity by lot size and average lot size, EUR m 100%
40
80%
30
60%
20
40% 20%
10
0%
0
Under 20m Above 500m
20-100m Average lot size
100-500m
Source: DTZ Research
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Investment Market Update
3
Europe Q3 2012
Map 1
Investment volume Q3 2012 vs Q3 2011
Source: DTZ Research; ESRI
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Investment Market Update
4
Europe Q3 2012
Source of capital Domestic players grow market share The uncertainty around investment market update dtz European economic environment and anticipated short-medium term recession is making cross-border investors more hesitant in entering into deals. In this context, domestic investors increased their activity with EUR15bn of acquisitions in Q3 and a market share of 60%, up from 54% in Q2 (Figure 8). Cross-border investment declined in the third quarter totalling EUR9.7bn, down from EUR11.7bn in Q2. The majority of the cross-border investment activity is due to purchases by inter-regional investors who target predominately the UK (72% of their investment activity) and to a lesser extent France and Germany. Highest cross-border activity recorded in the UK The analysis of cross-border activity by country shows some contrasting trends in Q3, investment market update dtz. The largest market shares of foreign investors were recorded this quarter in the UK, CEE and France, ranging from 42% to 48% of investment activity (Map 2 and Figure 9). In the CEE foreign investors accounted for 48% of the investment volume in Q3; however in absolute value, their acquisitions represent a modest EUR200m, investment market update dtz. Despite the “safe haven” status domestic investors remain most active in Germany with foreign investors accounting for just 23% of activity. Inter-regional investors keep increasing exposure The analysis of the net investment (difference between purchases and sales) by source of capital shows a much more interesting picture. In line with previous quarters, inter-regional investors posted the largest positive net investment at EUR4bn, investment market update dtz, albeit down from EUR5.2bn in Q2. Domestic and intra-regional investors remained net sellers offloading a net EUR1.8bn and EUR2.2bn respectively (Figure 10). Going forward, investment market update dtz, we anticipate more activity from intra-regional investors, in line with investment market update dtz latest Great Wall of 1 Money analysis. Inter-regional investors will continue investment market update dtz take position in a more opportunistic approach targeting specific asset types in selected markets.
Figure 8
Investment activity by source investment market update dtz capital, Investment market update dtz bn 50 40 30 20 10 0
Domestic
Intra-regional
Inter-regional
Source: DTZ Research
Figure 9
Cross-border investment by country, Q3 2012 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
UK
CEE France Europe average Nordics
Germany Domestic
Foreign
Source: DTZ Research
Figure 10
Net investment by source of capital, EUR bn 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Domestic
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Intra-regional
Inter-regional
Source: DTZ Research
1
See Great Wall of Money New Capital Returns to Growth, 9 October 2012
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Investment Market Update
5
Europe Q3 2012
Map 2
Domestic and foreign investment, Q3 2012
Source: DTZ Research, ESRI
www.dtz.com
Investment Market Update
6
Europe Q3 2012
Investor type
Figure 11
Investment activity by investor type, Q3 2012 Private property vehicles continue to be most active Private property vehicles remain the most dominant players across the European investment market, with acquisitions totalling EUR10bn this quarter, representing 40% of activity (Figure 11). The listed sector increased their exposure to property with purchases reaching EUR3.6bn up from EUR2.8bn in Q2 accounting for a 15% market share. Institutions kept the same level of activity on the buy side, accounting for 11% of activity in Q3. As the availability of debt remains constrained (see Box 1 for more detail on the funding environment) equity investors are taking advantage of their stronger bidding position particularly for larger lots. This is reflected in the strong buying activity from Sovereign Wealth Funds who invested a further EUR1.1bn in Q3 after investing EUR1.7bn in Q2. This took the year to date volumes to EUR3.5bn, which is more than double the EUR1.7bn invested in 2010 and 2011 combined. These funds, from Asia Pacific, Europe and the Middle East are focussed mainly on offices in core markets. Listed sector reverted to net buying On a net basis, private property vehicles remained the largest net buyers with net investment totalling to EUR2.2bn in Q3, up from EUR1.6bn in Q2. Private property companies remained net sellers at EUR2.2bn, a similar level as in Q2 (Figure 12). Despite the prospects of increased regulations, particularly Solvency II for insurers in Europe, institutions continue to be net buyers of direct property in Q3 with net purchases of EUR 200m. This is however at down from EUR800m in Q2.
Private Property Vehicle
15%
Listed sector
3% 4% 11%
Private Property Company
40% EUR 25.6 bn
Institution
Corporate
12%
Private Investor
15%
Other
Source: DTZ Research
Figure 12
Net investment by investor type, EUR bn 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 Listed sector
Private Property Company
Q4 2011
Private Property Vehicle
Q1 2012
Institution
Q2 2012
Corporate
Q3 2012
Source: DTZ Research
The surprise this quarter came from the listed sector which reverted to net buying after being net sellers for a year. They posted a EUR600m of positive net investment in Q3, through EUR3.6bn of purchases and EUR3bn of sales over the quarter. Their sales took place across different countries including Belgium, Estonia, Finland, the Netherlands and Romania. The large part of their market activity on the buy side is still concentrated on the most liquid markets of France, Germany, Sweden and the UK.
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Investment Market Update
7
Europe Q3 2012
Figure 13
Box 1: Trends in real estate funding Investors tap into bond markets to secure funding As the availability of debt from banks remains constrained, a growing number of property companies have been tapping into the bond market to take advantage of the falling borrowing costs in the public market. The bond proceeds were to a large extent used to prop up the financing structures and to diversify the funding sources. Many issuances were oversubscribed proving that demand for real estate corporate bonds is strong in the current environment. The average coupon in 2012 was 5% compared to 7% at the height of the financial crisis in 2008. Real estate companies are issuing longer dated bonds with an average duration of six years. This compares with four years a year ago (Figure 13). Non-bank lenders step up CRE lending At the same time, we have also seen growth in lending to commercial real estate from non-bank lenders, notably insurance companies (Table 1). Institutions are attracted by the returns on risk adjusted basis given the low yielding bond market and volatile equity market. So far the majority of non-bank lenders have focused how to invest in us stock market from abroad prime assets in core markets. Debt funds increasingly target European opportunities In the past six months, we have also seen an increase in the amount of equity available from funds solely targeting real 2 estate debt in Europe (Figure 14). These funds are not only targeting loan sales from banks, but also providing new senior or mezzanine finance.
Corporate bond issuance by real estate companies in Europe, EUR bn Average duration 6Y 5Y 4Y
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2006
2007
2008
Corporate bond issuance
Jan-Oct 2012
Average coupon (RHS)
Notable lending deals by non-bank lenders Property location
Loan amount
M&G Investments
UK
GBP 266m
Canada Life/Aviva
Investment market update dtz GBP 209m
Legal & General
UK
GBP 121m
MetLife (US)
UK
GBP 118m
Lender
Borrower Round Hill Picton Property Income Unite Group Moorefield & Segro Logistic fund
Source: DTZ Research
Figure 14
Available equity by debt funds in 2013, EUR bn
3.6
3.3
3 2.3 2 1 0 YE 2011
www.dtz.com
2011
Table 1
Mid 2012
Raised
2
see Great Wall of Money New Capital Returns to Growth, 9 October 2012
2010
Source: Bloomberg
4
In total we estimate that funds had raised EUR3.6bn in new equity to target opportunites in Europe. This excludes funds targeting opportunities globally. In addition, there is close to EUR3.3bn in new equity that debt funds are currently seeking to raise. We expect lenders to offload EUR20bn on the face value of loans in the next twelve months although the number and value of loan sales is likely to diminish over this period.
2009
8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
Mid 2012 Raising
Source: DTZ Research
Investment Market Update
8
Europe Q3 2012
Property type
Figure investment market update dtz Investment by property type, investment market update dtz, EUR bn Office and retail on the top Office sales totalled EUR12.6bn, investment market update dtz, representing half the investment activity in Q3, a level unchanged from Q2 (Figure 15). Investment in offices is still above the quarterly average of EUR11.5bn recorded in 2011. Higher risk aversion led them to concentrate on the core markets of the UK, Germany and France, which represented more than 80% of European office sales. The volume of office investment declined sharply in some countries such as the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. In Sweden acquisitions fell 34% from EUR1.3bn in Q2 to EUR0.8bn in Q3. The sale of retail assets remained unchanged from Q2, accounting for a further EUR5.8bn (23% of the total investment volume). As with offices the three core markets accounted for more than 75% of the total volume with the UK leading the activity with EUR2.4bn of sales. Mixed-use and industrial assets registered a decline on a quarterly basis with EUR2.5bn and EUR2.2bn respectively sold in Q3 2012. After the peak in Q2, activity in the industrial sector declined again and came back to its previous average level. The biggest decrease was registered in the UK market moving from EUR1.7bn in Q2 to EUR0.6bn in Q3. Shopping centres remain attractive investment There were more shopping centres sales in Q3 than in Q2, accounting for a total volume of EUR2.7bn over the quarter, up from EUR2.1bn in Q2. Shopping centre sales accounted for 46% of retail activity followed by retail park/warehouse purchases at 17% (Figure 16), investment market update dtz. The scarcity of opportunities highlighted several times in this report pushed retail oriented investors to deploy capital outside familiar markets. Notably, Blackstone acquired a shopping canter in Romania from Redevco. This reflects the selective approach adopted by investors towards better quality retail assets across Europe.
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35 30
25 20 15 10
5 0 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Office
Retail
Mixed Use
Industrial
Other/Unknown
Source: DTZ Research
Figure 16
Retail investment by property type, Q3 2012
Shopping Centre
13%
Retail Park/ Warehouse
8% EUR 5.8 bn
16%
46%
High Street Supermarket
17%
Leisure/ Other
Source: DTZ Investment market update dtz Investment Market Update
9
Europe Q3 2012
Yields trends Divergence investment market update dtz Northern and Southern Europe No changes in prime office yields have been reported in the major markets across Europe in Q3 (Figure 17). Prime office yields remain at low levels, at 4.5% in London’s West End and Paris CBD, and 5.05% in Frankfurt. Some markets that are experiencing continued economic troubles started to see property yields move out. In Milan yields now stand at 6.5%, up by 20 bps in one quarter. It could be the same story for Spain where investment volume continued to decline but for now prime yields remain firm. Although investment market update dtz remain relatively stable the divergence between North and South Europe is expected to continue. Figure 18 shows the range of yield movements across Europe over the past four years (indicated by the black line) and the current prime office yield at the end of Q3 2012 (indicated by the dark blue dot). Yields in many markets such as in the UK, Germany and France, are now close to their level at the peak of the market in 2007.
Figure 17
Prime office yields in Europe 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0%
London (WE)
Madrid
Paris (CBD)
Milan
Source: DTZ Research
Figure 18
Prime office yields in Q3 2012 – changes 2007-2011 12%
Dublin, Bucharest and Budapest continue to be the markets where current level of yields is still far above their peak level. There, the gap is ranging from 200 to 325 bps, providing scope for yield compression (Map 3). In Madrid and Milan yields are now 100 bps above their pre-crisis level.
10%
Looking forward, the biggest capital growth is expected in CEE and across the Baltic States such as Tallinn and Riga. More mature markets as London West End and City or Paris La Défense should also benefit from some growth. A decline in values is anticipated in ten out investment market update dtz fifty markets included in our coverage. On the back of a deteriorating economic environment the most significant drop in capital values is forecasted in Barcelona, Madrid and Rome.
2%
www.dtz.com
Frankfurt
8% 6%
4%
Source: DTZ Research
Investment Market Update 10
Europe Q3 2012
Map 3
Office prime yields, Q3 2012
Source: DTZ Research, ESRI
www.dtz.com
Investment Market Update 11
Europe Q3 2012
Outlook
Figure 19
Investment volume, investment market update dtz, EUR bn Muted recovery expected The negative sentiment and deteriorating economic outlook continues to impact the European investment market, investment market update dtz. As such, we expect that the traditional rush to complete deals in the final quarter is likely to be tempered by the prevailing market uncertainties. The divergence in investment activity is likely to continue, with the bulk of activity concentrated in the largest and liquid markets of the UK, France and Germany, with at best stable activity elsewhere. With EUR75bn transacted in the first three quarters of the year, we remain confident that volumes will close the year at around EUR100bn, 10% lower than 2011 and on a par with activity in 2010.
250 200
150 112 100
100 110
50 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Actual
Forecast
Source: DTZ Research
Looking to 2013 we expect investment volumes to increase modestly to EUR110bn (Figure 19). This increase will partly be supported by the rise in bank sales as regulatory pressures force banks to deleverage further. Combined with the release of more secondary stock, a greater clarity in pricing should support higher levels of liquidity. As the availability of prime product remains scarce, we also expect many investors to seek opportunities further up the risk curve in the search for higher returns. As risk aversion prevails, domestic investors are expected to remain dominant. However, based on our analysis of newly raised equity, we anticipate up to 60% to come from intra-regional investors in 2013 which should support higher levels of cross-border activity. In contrast, interregional activity is set to remain relatively low at 9%, although we do expect pockets of activity from Sovereign Wealth funds and other major pension funds seeking core assets. Based on our latest Fair Value analysis, Europe’s attractiveness has increased with an index score of 62 in Q3 3 compared to 53 at the end of last quarter. The safe haven markets of the UK and Germany continue to offer best value with the majority of markets classified as HOT or WARM. A majority of markets in France, investment market update dtz, the Nordics and CEE are also attractively priced, investment market update dtz, but investors need to be more selective in the opportunities available. 3
see DTZ Foresight European Fair Value Index ECB action filters through to property market, 25 October investment market update dtz www.dtz.com
Investment Market Update 12
Europe Q3 2012
Definitions This report presents data from the DTZ Research Investment Transactions Database (ITD). The ITD is based on commercial property investment deals reported in the press (both property and general), company and fund reports, information supplied by external data providers and by DTZ local offices around the world. Transactions
Prime Yield
Property type
Purchaser / vendor type
www.dtz.com
Commercial transactions refer only to direct property. However, entity level transactions where real estate is substantial proportion of assets are treated as purchases of direct property. Development transactions bitcoin investition online included if the purchase of commercial real estate occurs during the development / construction / comprehensive refurbishment phase and when the completion date is known. Transactions that involve more than one purchaser or vendor are classified as Joint Venture with appropriate weighting allocated to the transaction. Transactions cover European deals in excess of EUR1 million Represents the initial yield estimated to be achievable for a notional office property of highest quality and specification in the best location fully investment market update dtz and immediately income producing in a market at the survey date. The yield is derived from the rental income divided by the purchase price. DTZ tracks commercial property transactions made primarily in the office, retail, industrial and mixed use sectors. Land sales are not recorded unless the land is purchased in the development phase or is acquired specifically to construct a building or complex of buildings. Classification of purchasers and vendors by type enables us to track trends in transactions and also to assess the type of capital committed to property investments. Purchaser/Vendor Type and subtype definitions are as follows: - Institution: financial institutions/banks, pension funds and insurance companies. - Private Property Company: companies and developers, whose principal activities involve the development, buying and selling of commercial real estate but which do not have a stock exchange listing. - Private Property Vehicle: non-listed investment vehicles whose principal activities involve the development, buying and selling of commercial real estate. - Private investor: private individuals. - Quoted property company: companies and developers, investment market update dtz, whose main activities involve the development, buying and selling of commercial real estate that is listed under Real Estate on a stock exchange. - Quoted property vehicle: listed real estate vehicles i.e. funds and tax efficient structured vehicles, whose main activities involve the development, buying and selling of commercial real estate - Corporate: companies whose main activities do not involve development or investment in real estate
Investment Market Update 13
Europe Q3 2012
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Investment Market Update 14
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DTZ Research Contacts Global Head of Research Hans Vrensen Phone: +44 (0)20 3296 2159 Email: [email protected]
Head of CEMEA Research Magali Marton Phone: + 33 1 49 64 49 54 Email: [email protected]
Head of Global Forecasting Matthew Hall Phone: +44 (0)20 3296 3011 Email: [email protected]
Head of Ebest investment securities China Research David Ji Phone: +852 2507 0507 Email: [email protected]
Head of Strategy Research Nigel Almond Phone: +44 (0)20 3296 2328 Email: [email protected]
Head of APAC Research Chor-Hoon Chua Phone: +65 6293 3228 Email: [email protected]
Head of UK Research Ben Burston Phone: +44 (0)20 3296 tik tok app geld verdienen Email: [email protected]
Head of Americas Research John Wickes Phone: +1 312 424 8087 Email: [email protected]
DTZ Business Contacts Chief Executive, EMEA John Forrester Phone: +44 (0)20 3296 2002 Email: [email protected]
Chief Executive, North Asia Edward Cheung Phone: +86 21 2208 0088 Email: [email protected]
Chief Executive, Americas George Keches Phone: +1 617 559 4132 Email: [email protected]
DISCLAIMER This report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into transactions without seeking specific, qualified, professional advice. Whilst facts have been rigorously checked, DTZ can take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report, investment market update dtz. Information contained herein should not, in whole or part, be published, reproduced or referred to without prior approval. Any such reproduction should be credited to DTZ. © DTZ October 2012
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Investment Market Update 15
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